Q2 2023 Economic Reports

GDP GROWTH: TRENDING IN Q2 2023

The Commerce Department said the U.S. economy grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter, an increase from the 2% gain in Q1, defying both expectations and attempts by the Federal Reserve to slow it down to curb inflation.

Economists are now scaling back their prediction that national output will be pushed into a recession this year due to recent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation. The central bank has raised the benchmark rate 11 times since last year. A unanimous decision by the Federal Open Market Committee in late July raised the benchmark rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, a 22-year high.

Meanwhile, inflation was held in check in the second quarter. The personal consumption expenditures price index gained 2.6%, down from a 4.1% first-quarter rise and well below the Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 3.2%. “It’s great to have another quarter of positive GDP growth in tandem with a consistently slowing inflation rate,’’ said Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage. “Consumers are getting a reprieve from the rising costs of core goods, and the U.S. economy is off to a stronger start to the first half of the year.”

Q1 2023 Economic Reports

GDP GROWTH: TRENDING IN Q1 2023

The nation’s gross domestic product slowed dramatically in the first quarter, reflecting reduced production of goods and services that rose at a seasonally adjusted 1.1% annual rate in the first three months. Nevertheless, the Q1 data released by the Commerce Department shows that consumers still are spending despite higher prices driven by high inflation, which the Federal Reserve is trying to stifle by raising interest rates. Spending on travel, restaurants, and other services continues to rebound. Purchases of goods also rose after four straight quarters of declines.

EMPLOYMENT: TRENDING IN Q1 2023

Although nonfarm U.S. employment gains totaled 236,000 in March and the 3.5% unemployment rate was little changed, job openings fell to their lowest level in nearly two years, a sign to some economists of an easing labor market.

MONETARY POLICY: TRENDING IN Q1 2023

The Federal Reserve increased interest rates twice in the first quarter, bringing the benchmark borrowing rate to a new 4.75%-5% target range – the highest since the mid-2000s – as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the need for more tightening was increasing.

GLOBAL ECONOMY: TRENDING IN Q1 2023

It’s been one year since central banks began raising interest rates to slam the brakes on inflation. Although pricing pressures have receded, risks to financial stability have increased along with pessimism that a soft landing can be achieved.

How Commercial Real Estate Behaves in a Normal Recession?

Commercial real estate is a significant contributor to the overall economy and is an important asset class for many investors. In times of recession, commercial real estate can be affected in a variety of ways depending on the type of property, location, and other factors. This blog post will discuss how commercial real estate behaves in a normal recession.

First, defining what a "normal" recession means is important. A recession is typically defined as a period of economic decline characterized by a decrease in the gross domestic product (GDP) for at least two consecutive quarters. During a recession, consumer spending typically decreases, leading to a slowdown in business activity.

One of the most significant ways that commercial real estate is affected during a recession is through decreased demand for space. As businesses struggle to stay afloat during tough economic times, they may downsize or even close, decreasing demand for office, retail, and industrial space. This can result in higher vacancy rates and lower rental rates as landlords compete for tenants.

Office space is often the most affected during a recession, as companies may choose to reduce the amount of space they occupy or even move to less expensive locations. This can lead to decreased occupancy rates and rental income for office landlords.

Similarly, retail space can also be affected as consumers may cut back on discretionary spending during a recession. Retailers may struggle to stay afloat, leading to store closures and higher vacancy rates. In addition, e-commerce has become an increasingly popular way for consumers to shop, which can further impact brick-and-mortar retail space.

On the other hand, industrial real estate may be less affected during a recession as demand for warehouse and distribution space can remain steady or even increase. This is because companies may choose to focus on e-commerce and online sales during tough economic times, leading to increased demand for warehouse and logistics space.

Another way that commercial real estate is impacted during a recession is through financing. Lenders may become more cautious and tighten lending standards, making it more difficult for developers to secure financing for new projects. This can result in a slowdown in construction activity and a decrease in new commercial real estate supply.

In summary, commercial real estate behaves differently in a normal recession, depending on the type of property and location. Office and retail space may be more affected, while industrial real estate may be more resilient. Financing can also become more difficult to obtain, leading to a slowdown in new construction activity. As with any investment, it's important to consider the potential risks and rewards of investing in commercial real estate during a recession and consult with a financial advisor to determine the best course of action.

 As everyone knows, the “real estate market” is a very broad term. Different locations have different markets, and the Treasure Valley markets don’t necessarily react like a sub-section of New York or San Francisco’s markets. If you are interested in chatting about the local Treasure Valley market during these interesting times, call me, and let’s catch up.

Chase Erkins
chasee@leeidaho.com
208-789-4900